UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2339f1616694547eb091dc13f7ca8255f1e161b672b7d0ec3051896fb0a474ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 2,097$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.61 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 37c | 1,846$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.09 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a22…7b00backed Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 69c | 1,044$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 40c | 503.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 62c | 499.96$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.49 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed Under | 62c | 272$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…c1f2backed Over | 37c | 267.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Under | 62c | 202.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 40c | 124.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed Under | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 63c | 102.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 62c | 94.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Over | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 63c | 85.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed Under | 62c | 78.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Under | 79c | 74.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 63c | 53.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cd…e77cbacked Under | 62c | 48.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 58c | 37.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev won
- Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Julius Walker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.