Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Dakota vs. South Dakota
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23526089f680b70f5a728d8d47008d91dad42efcdf8b57c735ea5c8af4687373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Dakotaof North Dakota, South Dakota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0417…d836backed South Dakota | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked North Dakota | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…66dbbacked North Dakota | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…9e1cbacked North Dakota | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…a21dbacked North Dakota | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…69fcbacked North Dakota | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked North Dakota | 36c | 43.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…f19abacked North Dakota | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…8697backed North Dakota | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed South Dakota | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…111fbacked North Dakota | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…e3edbacked South Dakota | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…5b3bbacked South Dakota | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…c631backed South Dakota | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…88cabacked South Dakota | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…3f11backed South Dakota | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…d139backed South Dakota | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a78…7796backed South Dakota | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…2fe4backed South Dakota | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…8853backed South Dakota | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…1c1fbacked South Dakota | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…c05abacked South Dakota | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bb…fa21backed South Dakota | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked South Dakota | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…4902backed South Dakota | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.