Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Ball State Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23838174fa983d50827ebd5cfde4727727bc1af65bb6f7a1219b38219e29d793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball State Cardinalsof Le Moyne Dolphins, Ball State Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Ball State Cardinals | 50c | 1,183$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.09 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 2c | 1,001$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Le Moyne Dolphins | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ball State Cardinals | 71c | 465.76$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Ball State Cardinals | 45c | 428.77$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.82 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 40c | 313$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -14.7wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Le Moyne Dolphins | 25c | 232.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 50c | 217.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Le Moyne Dolphins | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 41c | 186.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 50c | 165.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Ball State Cardinals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Le Moyne Dolphins | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…04f6backed Le Moyne Dolphins | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…8f17backed Ball State Cardinals | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…3b58backed Le Moyne Dolphins | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.