Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250d4afc5941069e6a2789ecf5c1c7243eb882a7a954d76359a5b2bd5e73fd8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,713 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2615…fe8cbacked No | 28c | 421$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…0bf4backed No | 29c | 376$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…0c15backed No | 29c | 368$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…c92fbacked No | 28c | 367$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…12aabacked No | 28c | 318$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 13c | 272.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…8e14backed Yes | 71c | 269$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa7…f787backed No | 29c | 264$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…5aabbacked Yes | 72c | 263$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…2771backed Yes | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…d593backed Yes | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…1bb0backed Yes | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…81d4backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f3…5721backed Yes | 71c | 242$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…b622backed No | 29c | 231$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…8820backed No | 29c | 231$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…6b08backed Yes | 71c | 226$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…f17ebacked Yes | 71c | 218$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 25c | 209.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…e384backed Yes | 72c | 184$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…8cc0backed Yes | 72c | 158$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…203ebacked No | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 68.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 17?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 17?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on March 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.