Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e75663ff1bc96eabf90d6b1ff92181a4758a990b3404a768d691d8cd07f1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 59c | 3,218$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.19 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked Yes | 70c | 2,820$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 51c | 2,076$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.57 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,001$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.69 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 1,695$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 46c | 740$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 42c | 362$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 61c | 70.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…6e5ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 61c | 35.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Yes | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…630ebacked Yes | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.