Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Juventus (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cd9c1f5938dfceb81748da56f3f9ff215107ab0abb86cb56cf4883db6a45a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Cremoneseof Juventus, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked US Cremonese | 61c | 640$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked US Cremonese | 60c | 495.96$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Juventus | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…0d31backed Juventus | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juventus | 39c | 192$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Juventus | 55c | 190$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Juventus | 35c | 163.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Juventus | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed US Cremonese | 59c | 132.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed US Cremonese | 62c | 132.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed US Cremonese | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked US Cremonese | 52c | 90.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed US Cremonese | 52c | 88.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed US Cremonese | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Juventus | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Juventus | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Juventus | 45c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed US Cremonese | 62c | 24.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Juventus (-1.5)this page
- US Cremonese vs. Juventus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Juventus: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.