Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27faa234f553c05564c869ea61b4baeeebcb7ce5f2b73850aaa081d1f912f74a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 1c | 2,817$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 695.23$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 53c | 681.14$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.14 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 5c | 610$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…912cbacked Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 77c | 370.97$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 63c | 204$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 52c | 161.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 49c | 143.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 113.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 113.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 45c | 102.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 52c | 64.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 52.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 50c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Yes | 52c | 31.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 53c | 29.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 62c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Yes | 65c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.