Premier League · resolved market
Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280b5e57b7e4dea1fa61e1138c59bc9b15fa2f826f66a8f42ba0fbec34675e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 48c | 19,979$9,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,589.92 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 40c | 3,965$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 58c | 2,195$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.31 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 1,546$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 561.75$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.59 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 59c | 94.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 49c | 34.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Yes | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 67c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Fleetwood Town FC vs. Luton Town FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Fleetwood Town FC win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.