Commodities · resolved market
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a738048205c2c02762dd2b1dd12cab77c573cfc7adeebb6fe7306204b56a00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Down | 2c | 41,512$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa9…bab4backed Down | 6c | 15,313$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Down | 0c | 14,764$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +666.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Down | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 1c | 7,547$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Down | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Down | 10c | 4,852$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Down | 3c | 3,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Down | 10c | 2,254$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…5bafbacked Down | 3c | 1,669$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Down | 9c | 1,517$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked Down | 1c | 1,404$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Down | 5c | 1,269$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Down | 5c | 1,246$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…c8ccbacked Down | 16c | 1,237$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Down | 6c | 1,137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Down | 2c | 1,029$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…b944backed Down | 4c | 850$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…4f75backed Down | 2c | 749.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Down | 6c | 604.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Down | 8c | 601.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…a3febacked Down | 16c | 509.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Down | 16c | 505.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…9521backed Down | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Down | 8c | 460.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Down | 3c | 441.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x439c…908ebacked Down | 9c | 395.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…b247backed Down | 11c | 359.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…53d7backed Down | 14c | 314.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…5d94backed Down | 6c | 301.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Down | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…e6a2backed Down | 9c | 299.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…14b5backed Down | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…aa28backed Down | 13c | 212.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…6641backed Down | 10c | 180.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…efbcbacked Down | 14c | 112.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…4154backed Down | 14c | 95.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61aa…31e8backed Down | 14c | 93.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…2e3fbacked Down | 11c | 90.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.