CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Ursa (BO3) - Exort Meteor Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bdb88611cd0f62f6de17685e101b72cbc5bdbe7ec079ceee59f8ef8bb7a3ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FORZE Reloadof FORZE Reload, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed FORZE Reload | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 26c | 562.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…0a90backed Ursa | 28c | 235.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Ursa | 79c | 204.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 68c | 182.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked FORZE Reload | 31c | 164.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 118 | 30.5%36 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…b4f5backed Ursa | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Ursa | 40c | 84.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed FORZE Reload | 62c | 80.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed FORZE Reload | 22c | 75.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked FORZE Reload | 73c | 59.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Ursa | 22c | 55.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ursa | 25c | 53.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…0136backed Ursa | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…1ae5backed Ursa | 28c | 51.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed FORZE Reload | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed Ursa | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked FORZE Reload | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed FORZE Reload | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed FORZE Reload | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed FORZE Reload | 66c | 24.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Ursa | 49c | 22.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked FORZE Reload | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.