Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
St. Louis vs. Dayton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2700cbda60c51f90a057653b3775bd8a9da19338f39b2fcb90462669280377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daytonof St. Louis, Dayton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dayton | 62c | 951$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.13 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed St. Louis | 47c | 526$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dayton | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…994cbacked St. Louis | 36c | 423$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3130…f2cbbacked St. Louis | 36c | 325$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9886…d781backed Dayton | 64c | 274$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Dayton | 70c | 261.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…e602backed Dayton | 64c | 143$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…036cbacked St. Louis | 36c | 122$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Dayton | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d3…0de3backed Dayton | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Dayton | 71c | 95.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…5a5abacked Dayton | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…4a1cbacked St. Louis | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…8d95backed Dayton | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c6…9e70backed St. Louis | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed33…1797backed St. Louis | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6d…1df4backed St. Louis | 36c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…7dc8backed St. Louis | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…0822backed St. Louis | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…f30ebacked St. Louis | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2603…15c4backed Dayton | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb27…0034backed St. Louis | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…9745backed St. Louis | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…e2b4backed St. Louis | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d47…428cbacked St. Louis | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked St. Louis | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897f…421bbacked St. Louis | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc636…2e91backed St. Louis | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0f…de7cbacked Dayton | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…c9f0backed Dayton | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Dayton | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4f…d267backed Dayton | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…2605backed Dayton | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…c178backed Dayton | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…8cd3backed Dayton | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Dayton | 72c | 23.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…e781backed Dayton | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…6315backed Dayton | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…2d4dbacked Dayton | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…151fbacked Dayton | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…aaa5backed Dayton | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…514ebacked Dayton | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…6f99backed Dayton | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…386cbacked Dayton | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e1…cf5cbacked Dayton | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…d119backed Dayton | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…c8babacked Dayton | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…b95dbacked Dayton | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…5f32backed Dayton | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…b1bbbacked Dayton | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aeb…5fb5backed Dayton | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7271…efa9backed Dayton | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…cf59backed Dayton | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…ac1bbacked Dayton | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…3c94backed Dayton | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…b229backed Dayton | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a6…28a8backed Dayton | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…0ac7backed Dayton | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b4babacked Dayton | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…3db0backed Dayton | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…9a16backed Dayton | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.