Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cbc72e75ec7abf0ffeaf8baee35f3fe0eaffb73f6f6b4d4874de0bdd32c6c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buffalo Bullsof Buffalo Bulls, UMBC Retrievers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Buffalo Bulls | 57c | 1,768$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.95 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 44c | 788.06$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.9 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked UMBC Retrievers | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed UMBC Retrievers | 44c | 396$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 171$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed UMBC Retrievers | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Buffalo Bulls | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Buffalo Bulls | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Buffalo Bulls | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Buffalo Bulls | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Buffalo Bulls | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Buffalo Bulls | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Buffalo Bulls | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Buffalo Bulls vs. UMBC RetrieversBuffalo Bulls won
- Buffalo Bulls vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Buffalo Bulls vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Buffalo Bulls vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-1.5)Buffalo Bulls won
- Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-3.5)Buffalo Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.