Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 62°F or higher on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d798f936e1c2e59e16161ef5b2c3ce9cca8fb88054d0238ec8c46cf20a758f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32c2…c8c9backed No | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…ae08backed No | 6c | 1,700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…0975backed No | 2c | 1,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 1c | 1,667$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…5157backed No | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…5677backed No | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +941.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…8974backed No | 2c | 1,450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4622…3fbbbacked No | 1c | 1,372$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 1,237$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,126$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…bc37backed No | 28c | 150.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…605abacked No | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 62°F or higher on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.