Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duquesne vs. Dayton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d9fb24c8b7b96f28e025c7c65f9df43a1a6c876bcf91fa2646f72d5795aceb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daytonof Duquesne, Dayton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked Duquesne | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dayton | 79c | 106$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…8d8bbacked Dayton | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…2c77backed Duquesne | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…3551backed Dayton | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe482…9dc7backed Duquesne | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…c6afbacked Dayton | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…3734backed Duquesne | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a2…7f65backed Duquesne | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708c…0e36backed Dayton | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…cdf4backed Duquesne | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…1b5dbacked Dayton | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…5a9bbacked Dayton | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…37febacked Dayton | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b15…d01cbacked Duquesne | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4c78backed Dayton | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…3387backed Duquesne | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…d3e7backed Dayton | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…afcfbacked Duquesne | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…5ef1backed Duquesne | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…55d5backed Dayton | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…ffe7backed Dayton | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8364…2e46backed Dayton | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88c…33bcbacked Dayton | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…a967backed Dayton | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…dd5cbacked Duquesne | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…f710backed Dayton | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0944backed Duquesne | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…602ebacked Duquesne | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…fb90backed Duquesne | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…87c4backed Duquesne | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0d…9e0fbacked Duquesne | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…72b8backed Duquesne | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…6476backed Duquesne | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…f89dbacked Duquesne | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…9891backed Duquesne | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…734fbacked Duquesne | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…31c3backed Duquesne | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…b254backed Dayton | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…a14abacked Duquesne | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…b00bbacked Dayton | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…c0d4backed Dayton | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…b297backed Dayton | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…27a7backed Dayton | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…4ca3backed Dayton | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.