Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Montana US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0bae3cdd6c42468ebfd30df5a93adcbe666d891674116b990bae8d11b7f511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $686,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $683,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdabe…bd89backed Yes | 23c | 85,328$19,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,346.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…b3a4backed Yes | 28c | 72,552$20,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,025.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 62c | 30,018$18,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,393.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 15c | 18,648$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…b516backed Yes | 22c | 16,900$3,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c322backed Yes | 39c | 14,323$5,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,621.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 39c | 13,590$5,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,295.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 78c | 12,670$9,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.4 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…2cf8backed Yes | 18c | 10,680$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 78c | 10,478$8,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 58c | 8,101$4,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,367.33 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 79c | 8,000$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…b210backed Yes | 19c | 6,983$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 21c | 6,712$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.9 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 15c | 5,147$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes | 17c | 4,598$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 4,422$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 19c | 4,009$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,748$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 35c | 3,668$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.74 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…8b62backed Yes | 15c | 3,644$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed Yes | 42c | 3,608$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 34c | 3,371$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.27 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…9194backed Yes | 20c | 3,072$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 28c | 3,038$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 2,799$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.25 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 68c | 2,674$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…c125backed Yes | 25c | 2,539$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 73c | 2,427$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 66c | 2,209$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…cf05backed No | 77c | 2,113$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…0552backed Yes | 36c | 1,944$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…d299backed Yes | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 71c | 1,832$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.93 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…bb50backed Yes | 19c | 1,631$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed No | 52c | 1,500$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c4ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed No | 70c | 1,400$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 49c | 1,200$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 26c | 1,194$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…7dd5backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 12c | 848.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…88aabacked Yes | 24c | 750$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed Yes | 34c | 734.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 42c | 700$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…995fbacked Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6963…c7bbbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 60c | 618.66$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 611$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.03 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…212fbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…915dbacked Yes | 18c | 561.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 555$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…fde1backed Yes | 37c | 541.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 34c | 451.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…3dacbacked Yes | 32c | 450.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 35c | 415.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…d84bbacked Yes | 22c | 409.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…ac63backed Yes | 20c | 407.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 381.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…8309backed Yes | 18c | 375.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…a3a0backed Yes | 23c | 375$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 36c | 304$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…896ebacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…d300backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…0470backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…a4fabacked Yes | 30c | 283.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f322backed Yes | 35c | 281.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…44d9backed Yes | 21c | 279.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…35acbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…bab1backed Yes | 16c | 263.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 37c | 239.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…f9a0backed Yes | 18c | 223.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 38c | 220$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…adbbbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…6245backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 39c | 207.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 66c | 205$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…17e8backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Montana US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.