MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0f6d11dcbcffbeda22e2d7d3cbf0d1a14983e5cb12eddfd6ac64f230e911db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,987 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 996.54$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.54 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 504.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 444.83$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 332$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 284$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 233.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 211.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…5786backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 73.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 36.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.