CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom (BO3) - MaceMedia VOID Cup Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3020777660ce5b292b5114f47ddcd5d623c2e936c5cd9e52bb524dd3af3f9713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morningstarof Morningstar, Rare Atom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,972 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3b44backed Rare Atom | 50c | 432$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Morningstar | 50c | 393.73$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.68 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Rare Atom | 45c | 287.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…4e34backed Morningstar | 50c | 275$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Rare Atom | 58c | 259.22$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Morningstar | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a368backed Morningstar | 50c | 157$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Rare Atom | 56c | 132.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Morningstar | 45c | 109.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…b591backed Morningstar | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Morningstar | 40c | 100.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Rare Atom | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…526dbacked Rare Atom | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Morningstar | 64c | 44.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked Morningstar | 67c | 43.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Rare Atom | 68c | 42.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Rare Atom | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Rare Atom | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…946dbacked Morningstar | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…d8dbbacked Morningstar | 55c | 38.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8e…ca2ebacked Rare Atom | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Morningstar | 59c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Rare Atom | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 228 | 44.3%101 W · 127 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Rare Atom | 33c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Morningstar | 40c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…7992backed Morningstar | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Rare Atom | 51c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Morningstar | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Rare Atom | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Morningstar | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.