Token Launches · resolved market
Wormhole airdrop in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e6fc45d966b73b34cd51331a862cfa201b773916ef87872186827ad85c203d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 66c | 1,265$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…a889backed Yes | 41c | 1,099$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…c8b0backed No | 42c | 841.19$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 40c | 656.58$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…7283backed Yes | 64c | 498.84$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…7358backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…cd08backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 54c | 185.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…3527backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…22a1backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…6e92backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…98d7backed Yes | 75c | 13.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wormhole airdrop in March?this page
- Wormhole airdrop in April?Yes won
- Wormhole airdrop in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.