Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3102b2eb2d36445badca3461bf140d25baf6f4fbd0a7085d3106f367b930e6b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Tien, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,289 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Fokina | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tien | 56c | 258.6$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Tien | 64c | 251.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fokina | 44c | 130.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Fokina | 48c | 100.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Fokina | 42c | 91.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Fokina | 46c | 84.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fokina | 50c | 59.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fokina | 35c | 51.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…ae93backed Fokina | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…f902backed Tien | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…1c4cbacked Tien | 41c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Tien | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Fokinathis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaLearner Tien won
- Learner Tien vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Fokina won
- Tien vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.