Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Majchrzak
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3158989c0915936a2f56912002acb6edd1ba9fe07a2e0f86a6785689d8a1b37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Medvedev, Majchrzak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Medvedev | 75c | 156$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Majchrzak | 31c | 102.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Medvedev | 71c | 88.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Medvedev | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Majchrzak | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Majchrzak | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Medvedev | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Medvedev | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…d131backed Medvedev | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Medvedev | 70c | 16.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Majchrzakthis page
- Brisbane International: Daniil Medvedev vs Kamil MajchrzakMedvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)Majchrzak won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.