Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Himeno Sakatsume
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3211c03cc1b4e8d8a1ac0115ad9db48d0719270bc80330717777e8132a1d6968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Himeno Sakatsume
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 15,314$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.06 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 7,785$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Himeno Sakatsume | 6c | 5,217$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Himeno Sakatsume | 1c | 2,779$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Himeno Sakatsume | 4c | 2,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 1,437 | 28.5%409 W · 1,028 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Himeno Sakatsume | 1c | 2,211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,207 | 8%96 W · 1,111 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 1,930$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 1,255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Himeno Sakatsume | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 1,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…7242backed Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 90 | 23.3%21 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 769.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Himeno Sakatsume | 2c | 511.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Himeno Sakatsume | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Himeno Sakatsumethis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Himeno Sakatsume: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Sakatsume: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.