Europa Conference League · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3228be057af62b0bf5c5ffcd8548c6cdbce079e8c0f955a503bcba2dd4091b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 42c | 4,313$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 57c | 2,669$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.19 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 58c | 2,600$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 2,471$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 1,719$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.33 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 43c | 1,250$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 49c | 1,073$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.63 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 551.81$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.94 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 453.01$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.6 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 343.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 53c | 186.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 54c | 154.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 58c | 103.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Under | 46c | 78.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 46c | 69.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 58c | 55.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b299backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 58c | 43.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 60c | 34.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 56c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Over | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over | 57c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.