Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3391fb960ffe55b63b47971b86fc271b64658e99598fff26edb148a8563b0a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 2c | 1,533$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 65c | 1,125$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 647.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 6c | 162.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 151.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 38c | 144.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 137.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 131.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 123.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 41c | 123.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 123.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 31c | 100.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 97.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 58c | 84.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 62c | 68.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 64.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 63.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…a04bbacked No | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 58.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 37c | 48.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 47c | 47.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…b27cbacked Yes | 61c | 44.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 67c | 43.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 56c | 33.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed No | 51c | 31.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 47c | 30.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 37c | 28.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 28.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 43c | 24.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 66c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed No | 63c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 19.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.