Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34eede9db054917d34e14f954111b1101604ff7a557fc715b225a89cbca3432c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x403b…5007backed No | 14c | 1,023$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…4aa2backed No | 7c | 965$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…483bbacked No | 7c | 964.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…7d35backed No | 7c | 955$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff35…175dbacked No | 7c | 954.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…0bcfbacked No | 7c | 945$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…1bcfbacked No | 7c | 944.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…ae62backed No | 6c | 910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…0377backed No | 6c | 910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1e…b094backed No | 6c | 910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…e076backed No | 7c | 910$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…d979backed No | 6c | 910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…77e6backed No | 7c | 910$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…ca2cbacked No | 7c | 905$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4859…5d28backed No | 7c | 905$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…7bd2backed No | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…016ebacked No | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…8ebdbacked No | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…b6d1backed No | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…d25ebacked No | 7c | 898$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…fce1backed No | 7c | 898$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…8f54backed No | 7c | 898$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…c7bbbacked No | 7c | 898$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…84c1backed No | 3c | 698.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…e2a3backed No | 6c | 345.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 7c | 151.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.