Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Abilene Christian vs. Tarleton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350decdbac5eb2e4f39a8c7e5d7c89efacebaf0c5d10c1756adbad4fc408331b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tarletonof Abilene Christian, Tarleton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf664…0858backed Tarleton | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x178a…8dc4backed Tarleton | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…191bbacked Abilene Christian | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8830…e62fbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…ec2dbacked Tarleton | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755b…8ec0backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…aa67backed Abilene Christian | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…8e21backed Tarleton | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…85a5backed Abilene Christian | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Abilene Christian | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Tarleton | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…2822backed Abilene Christian | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…e3ccbacked Tarleton | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…589dbacked Abilene Christian | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2c…b534backed Abilene Christian | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809b…a59dbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…af2abacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…c8efbacked Tarleton | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…d4a0backed Tarleton | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…04e3backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…716fbacked Abilene Christian | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…e3f3backed Tarleton | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…6fa5backed Tarleton | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…29b0backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…1232backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…17f6backed Tarleton | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…16f4backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…67b1backed Tarleton | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…5cd9backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…76ccbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6838…77b0backed Tarleton | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…8c73backed Tarleton | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2f85backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…b3e4backed Tarleton | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3e8bbacked Tarleton | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd29…dfe3backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.