Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bd25b72ea865421a3c06431888f1d53de2519a045dd8d671491d0577ea3eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eastern Michiganof Toledo, Eastern Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a16…295bbacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…2bcbbacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…9f78backed Toledo | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…44ebbacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…3f4cbacked Toledo | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…8343backed Toledo | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…26c0backed Eastern Michigan | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…41c7backed Toledo | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…ed0dbacked Toledo | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…d29fbacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…23d0backed Toledo | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…22fabacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…8594backed Toledo | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…462bbacked Toledo | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…38c5backed Eastern Michigan | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…8d8abacked Eastern Michigan | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6e…2f7fbacked Toledo | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…3f8bbacked Toledo | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…b69ebacked Toledo | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…ddc9backed Toledo | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…74bbbacked Toledo | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.