Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Veronika Erjavec vs Shuai Zhang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b1ab79e8d03ec19bba387824fe2d92a912c44efca9403d13b117c231fc0d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Erjavec, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Erjavec | 5c | 2,728$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Erjavec | 26c | 1,804$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.38 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Erjavec | 1c | 1,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Erjavec | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Zhang | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Erjavec | 14c | 463.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zhang | 74c | 356.3$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…b575backed Erjavec | 7c | 340.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Erjavec | 13c | 299$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Erjavec | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Zhang | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Erjavec | 28c | 105.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e0…04cfbacked Zhang | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Zhang | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…533cbacked Zhang | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.