Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Akron vs. Ball State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3825e952c1774b7ebeee20fa1596944501d1aad2f475f1efc12e7a5a768b870b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Akronof Akron, Ball State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d6d…93eebacked Akron | 76c | 204$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Ball State | 22c | 122.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked Ball State | 24c | 119$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…24abbacked Ball State | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8364…2e46backed Ball State | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a69…04e6backed Ball State | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…cb52backed Ball State | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…6c3cbacked Ball State | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Akron | 78c | 80.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…4f03backed Akron | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ball State | 22c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…ccd6backed Akron | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…6266backed Ball State | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…8060backed Ball State | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…06dbbacked Ball State | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…fd27backed Ball State | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…a7cabacked Akron | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…bf16backed Akron | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…6ff4backed Akron | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…16dbbacked Akron | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…93b4backed Akron | 78c | 42.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…ef4dbacked Akron | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c7…e5f7backed Akron | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…eafabacked Ball State | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…6af3backed Ball State | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c9…a8f0backed Akron | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…bd39backed Akron | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…0c91backed Akron | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…d0ddbacked Akron | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…01b1backed Akron | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…65f7backed Akron | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…9908backed Akron | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0572…a5c0backed Akron | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…849ebacked Akron | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…0cb3backed Akron | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02e…061cbacked Akron | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…1f85backed Akron | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…d1e0backed Akron | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.