Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Silk vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38a18454762790514d909b4e24c9a348e910c2e4df15b66c0f8a0485a44f9dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Silk, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Silk | 0c | 5,366$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…68f9backed Silk | 18c | 1,503$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…28f5backed Silk | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…6b00backed Silk | 19c | 1,125$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…20f0backed Silk | 19c | 1,116$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…d2a7backed Silk | 19c | 1,108$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…2c59backed Silk | 18c | 1,096$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…7c2abacked Silk | 19c | 1,086$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…8ffabacked Silk | 19c | 1,083$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…5a76backed Silk | 18c | 1,070$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…7f16backed Silk | 18c | 1,064$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed Silk | 18c | 1,050$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…5a98backed Silk | 18c | 1,049$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…1ad5backed Silk | 18c | 1,045$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67a…f5debacked Silk | 18c | 972$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…2ce0backed Silk | 18c | 900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46dd…fd2abacked Silk | 18c | 860$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…4c89backed Silk | 18c | 828$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed Silk | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…7f1cbacked Silk | 18c | 779$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…7ee5backed Silk | 18c | 771$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…aaf5backed Silk | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Silk | 15c | 117.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba6…822abacked Silk | 20c | 102.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…9a8fbacked Silk | 14c | 101.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Silk | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Inner Circle | 80c | 61.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Silk | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.