Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Illinois vs. Ball State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39841cf0d1247ca2b511790cf42c21eb5006c31f8510b8ce596b0daf4f88cd98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball Stateof Northern Illinois, Ball State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe63a…3f6cbacked Ball State | 78c | 253$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…421ebacked Northern Illinois | 22c | 213$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0901…b944backed Northern Illinois | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…6b2cbacked Ball State | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…2bcbbacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…154fbacked Ball State | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…67c6backed Ball State | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0064…a084backed Northern Illinois | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…d437backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…e4f9backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…5d95backed Ball State | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…d6fbbacked Ball State | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…a80cbacked Ball State | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…1a3dbacked Ball State | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…770cbacked Ball State | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…666abacked Ball State | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.