Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e454dafb1b52b1a1beb925adb31b814caa540090fff62d220bdd4d537297eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,203 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Spirit Academy | 27c | 2,336$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.45 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed L1ga Team | 69c | 1,481$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.79 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed L1ga Team | 67c | 920.99$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.93 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed L1ga Team | 71c | 765.53$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.71 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 67c | 561.19$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 555.09$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 507$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spirit Academy | 21c | 332.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed L1ga Team | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…53edbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 199$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…74fcbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 176.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Spirit Academy | 27c | 174.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 70c | 157.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 125.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed L1ga Team | 74c | 122.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 88.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Spirit Academy | 33c | 88.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 59.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…3799backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 31.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed L1ga Team | 71c | 29.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…9a99backed L1ga Team | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - CCT Group AL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.