Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State vs. UIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a5d02243dbb5f620470f9c990595212bce8987efa8d4cf7c286fa095a5e6dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UICof Missouri State, UIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed UIC | 65c | 690$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.5 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Missouri State | 33c | 441.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Missouri State | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Missouri State | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Missouri State | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked UIC | 67c | 155.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed UIC | 66c | 144$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Missouri State | 29c | 135.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Missouri State | 33c | 135.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…d7febacked Missouri State | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…55d5backed Missouri State | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…666abacked Missouri State | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ec…9873backed UIC | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked UIC | 67c | 81.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…2786backed UIC | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UIC | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…beafbacked UIC | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…f1a3backed Missouri State | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed UIC | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…a40ebacked UIC | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6900…a9e5backed UIC | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…c977backed Missouri State | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e62…fdc3backed UIC | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed UIC | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…b4fbbacked UIC | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…a1f3backed UIC | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…d3e7backed UIC | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9336backed UIC | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.