Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wagner vs. Long Island University
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aab473c9f0ebaf2155a123a76e34be9e5d553a404f89a75895030ee6857888f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Long Island Universityof Wagner, Long Island University
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Long Island University | 47c | 669$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.8 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Long Island University | 68c | 627.81$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7380…c033backed Wagner | 51c | 290$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…5ce8backed Long Island University | 50c | 265$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…61e2backed Wagner | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…ce6bbacked Wagner | 42c | 207$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…4bd9backed Long Island University | 49c | 183$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0918…9782backed Wagner | 65c | 169$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…67d4backed Wagner | 65c | 126$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…c05cbacked Wagner | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…a2cebacked Long Island University | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…2b85backed Long Island University | 35c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…70d9backed Long Island University | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…d758backed Wagner | 51c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d77…7c1ebacked Wagner | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…5bbabacked Long Island University | 35c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…23bcbacked Wagner | 65c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8201…8567backed Long Island University | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…4ce8backed Wagner | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d2…ee21backed Long Island University | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…79b6backed Wagner | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…6f05backed Wagner | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…6805backed Wagner | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Long Island University | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…ee23backed Wagner | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7890…89afbacked Long Island University | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…75bcbacked Wagner | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3d…f6e8backed Long Island University | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…a46cbacked Wagner | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…cda0backed Long Island University | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…e0f9backed Wagner | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…489ebacked Long Island University | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…3d6dbacked Wagner | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…0db5backed Wagner | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…9348backed Long Island University | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…65f7backed Long Island University | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…6951backed Wagner | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…dc5dbacked Wagner | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.