Premier League · resolved market
Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b3e633bb23fa17746e557cab0d01fb5d798954b736ff2b6734ad5a25146d0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 649.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.56 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 438.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Yes | 78c | 386.74$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 23c | 378.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 285.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Yes | 66c | 91.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…685ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…b69abacked Yes | 76c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…eeb0backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…1f27backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf409…8208backed No | 76c | 13.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-04?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.