Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3baeeb35cd3a787b434564789112a4b8dab4a9e5d75aefad5f93dc4961b25989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 10c | 676.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 53c | 96.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 53c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe909…465ebacked Yes | 65c | 29.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…8437backed Yes | 49c | 24.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9c…c0edbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…be19backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.