AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c54b37d222c446fa43d08e6efb3de3a8dbfda10ef0df456d2e0dc684c6c77ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e1…2f63backed No | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…a281backed Yes | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39f1…d223backed No | 50c | 2,620$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…9a93backed Yes | 50c | 2,620$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…d490backed Yes | 50c | 2,560$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…bc0fbacked No | 50c | 2,560$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…0a6dbacked No | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…31bfbacked Yes | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…c68cbacked No | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…727dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8536backed No | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa2…30f8backed Yes | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 337.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?this page
- Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?No won
- Will AutoSleep Track Sleep on Watch be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?Yes won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.