CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Color vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9b7d5756865b08285c3cb024738cd092cc9de5f28e95a6db0fc5bd5a396826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorof Color, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Butterfly | 17c | 1,264$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Color | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Color | 58c | 688$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Butterfly | 48c | 666.78$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…045dbacked Color | 72c | 586$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Butterfly | 33c | 498$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…e846backed Color | 62c | 348.73$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Butterfly | 28c | 295.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Butterfly | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 44.5%201 W · 251 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…0fd0backed Butterfly | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Butterfly | 19c | 213$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Butterfly | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Color | 76c | 173.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Color | 58c | 170.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Color | 76c | 154.08$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…cc7abacked Butterfly | 8c | 140.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Color | 51c | 129$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Butterfly | 17c | 127.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 190 | 35.8%68 W · 122 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Butterfly | 31c | 119.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…fcc2backed Butterfly | 18c | 90.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Color | 80c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Color | 64c | 55.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Color | 53c | 46.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Color | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Color | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Color | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Color | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 609 | 54%329 W · 280 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Color | 63c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 121 | 76%92 W · 29 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…c83abacked Color | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Color vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Color vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageColor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.