TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$635,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$629,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $635,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe0f0…bad3backed Magic53c336,982$178,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158,381.47944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Timberwolves47c277,155$130,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,250.8287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Timberwolves47c103,707$48,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,400.1836549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Magic49c75,012$37,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,005.5860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Magic54c39,998$21,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,399.216043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timberwolves51c34,778$17,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,792.031,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves46c31,314$14,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,404.451,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Timberwolves50c29,987$14,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,993.6748845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Magic49c29,009$14,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,714.477650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves50c23,935$11,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,857.052,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Timberwolves51c20,477$10,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,443.1437355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic54c19,719$10,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,117.71,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Magic52c12,776$6,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,134.9417055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Timberwolves45c11,250$5,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,062.571,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Magic55c10,769$5,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,846.2717646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Magic50c9,700$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8504847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Magic54c9,037$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.5132351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic54c5,819$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.8282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Timberwolves46c5,259$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41910553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves49c4,768$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves49c4,532$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.311,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Magic50c3,979$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.4711945.4%54 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Magic49c3,742$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89627455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Timberwolves46c3,257$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.1712257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Timberwolves46c3,174$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.9922349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Magic56c2,921$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.1515753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Timberwolves34c2,790$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.6611034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Magic49c2,583$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.4313563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Timberwolves52c2,293$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.1756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Magic54c2,159$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.014951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Timberwolves49c2,002$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.731,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Timberwolves50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Magic54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.9931046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Timberwolves49c1,939$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.0172241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Timberwolves46c1,935$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.191952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves44c1,768$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.916,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Timberwolves10c1,762$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.181,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves33c1,498$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.2649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Magic67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.7943269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves48c1,431$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.053,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Timberwolves44c1,367$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.391,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Timberwolves50c1,050$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52544740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Magic65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35011639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Timberwolves46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46019937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf874…b5efbacked Magic50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4855851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Timberwolves47c968.2$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.0562948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Timberwolves47c968.2$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.054940.8%20 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves10c891.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.112,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Magic54c777.92$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.8429650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Magic50c708.65$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0830453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Magic56c681.52$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.877454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Magic53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28225155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Timberwolves46c599.97$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.9949345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Magic49c583.91$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9614845.3%67 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Magic55c583.8$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.715538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Timberwolves44c575.5$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.545,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Timberwolves51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1829848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0041…7dccbacked Timberwolves46c560$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.62714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-59.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Magic50c553.23$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Magic53c550.04$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.521,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Timberwolves48c499.99$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9968645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic51c488.64$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.791,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Timberwolves48c487.95$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4810745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Magic49c480.88$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.6822552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Timberwolves47c457.86$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4510745.8%49 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Magic51c402.79$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2689048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Magic54c388.96$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9211451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Timberwolves54c388.96$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0420650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Timberwolves50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944540%18 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Magic62c363.61$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3770147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic54c346.77$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.874,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7954…665bbacked Timberwolves56c312.59$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.261040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Magic50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.544345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0687…02e4backed Timberwolves50c291$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.51450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Timberwolves51c285.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5965349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Timberwolves10c283.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.385843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Magic70c281$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6220963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Timberwolves45c274.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Magic50c273.14$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1831354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Magic51c264.77$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0848751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb03c…b352backed Timberwolves48c260.05$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.875341.5%22 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Magic65c237.33$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97d…b295backed Magic56c225.46$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.22035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-33.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic53c222.17$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3589850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Timberwolves24c206.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9810447.1%49 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Timberwolves47c206.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8162450%312 W · 312 L-2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Timberwolves47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8212845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Timberwolves49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Timberwolves49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9826339.5%104 W · 159 L-13.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18e8…0f39backed Timberwolves45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b4a…3647backed Magic51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.121136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked Timberwolves47c193.64$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0110737.4%40 W · 67 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Magic80c192.53$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.515425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d0…7ee5backed Magic56c191.08$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.075040%20 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Magic50c189.81$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6430654.6%167 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Timberwolves54c180.44$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2318839.9%75 W · 113 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Magic55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.619438.3%36 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Timberwolves47c164.73$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9339448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Magic49c162.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3138853.4%207 W · 181 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.