Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebbf824999ed8379bfe8c96808067ce6030399c3e3cf91d75a597e337ca4e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Ivory, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc03f…3f30backed Ivory | 2c | 1,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Ivory | 22c | 350.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…acc9backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 337.74$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Nemesis | 65c | 277.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ivory | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 176.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 41c | 144.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Ivory | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6698…e620backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 36.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Ivory | 73c | 27.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3)Team Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.