Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mercer vs. East Tennessee State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe0ccdd44a266cf1ad5cee40a064e9688209ff6684b289997d991a3a5115452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- East Tennessee Stateof Mercer, East Tennessee State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1939…ba22backed Mercer | 22c | 176$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…dffdbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 157$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…bdf5backed East Tennessee State | 78c | 134$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…d85ebacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 121$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…7bb0backed Mercer | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…424bbacked Mercer | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…8817backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…8d1cbacked Mercer | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…733cbacked Mercer | 21c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…68ecbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…e6cdbacked Mercer | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…c4fcbacked Mercer | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…c553backed Mercer | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…895cbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…16f4backed Mercer | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc3…a38ebacked Mercer | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…5deabacked Mercer | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…04b2backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…cfb9backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…baf7backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…75bcbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…5cd9backed East Tennessee State | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9543…b940backed East Tennessee State | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3e8bbacked East Tennessee State | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…a0cebacked East Tennessee State | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…7a58backed East Tennessee State | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…99b8backed East Tennessee State | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dcfebacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…37b6backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…0c6bbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…d3c9backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…0cf2backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…3f65backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f7…2ec5backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f70…d9cbbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…5a78backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c70…a5cbbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…572ebacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…7a11backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fe…083cbacked East Tennessee State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd28…dcf0backed East Tennessee State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.