Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d7b224d8484f6035cf7d561c2753ea941144b16ed9fe4af083ad8c8bf4f276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of AVULUS, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 902.24$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.24 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed AVULUS | 33c | 677.24$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.49 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed AVULUS | 38c | 638.67$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed AVULUS | 42c | 365.8$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 261.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked AVULUS | 35c | 226.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed AVULUS | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed AVULUS | 37c | 100.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked AVULUS | 56c | 89.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked AVULUS | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.