Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ed45f39ac37c3bd713983cf56b9cb54836acf79583a02d49b7df4c4c3f6926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southern Illinoisof Illinois State, Southern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Illinois State | 56c | 7,716$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Southern Illinois | 45c | 5,454$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,018.37 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Southern Illinois | 43c | 567.19$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.3 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Southern Illinois | 44c | 551.31$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.73 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Southern Illinois | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…020abacked Illinois State | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…98e5backed Southern Illinois | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…6774backed Southern Illinois | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…9304backed Illinois State | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Southern Illinois | 49c | 48.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…dc35backed Southern Illinois | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf9…c581backed Southern Illinois | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…183abacked Southern Illinois | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…6b31backed Southern Illinois | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bf…33e3backed Southern Illinois | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…6572backed Illinois State | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…e6ecbacked Southern Illinois | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Illinois State | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…23abbacked Illinois State | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…d521backed Illinois State | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…cf7cbacked Southern Illinois | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0d30backed Illinois State | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…99a1backed Southern Illinois | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b7…fc9cbacked Illinois State | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…0727backed Illinois State | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…8ee5backed Illinois State | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…62e1backed Illinois State | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…5246backed Southern Illinois | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…f17abacked Southern Illinois | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…f148backed Illinois State | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…d434backed Illinois State | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…221dbacked Illinois State | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…1a16backed Southern Illinois | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…c5a8backed Illinois State | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…dceebacked Illinois State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94b…966ebacked Southern Illinois | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…a72abacked Illinois State | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.