Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iceland win on 2025-09-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f48036753108c65760d4517fa32ca6a65e5bacef85c9d9b6f8f8d07706c2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 75c | 2,945$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.73 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 24c | 2,750$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.92 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 33c | 999.93$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 942.03$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.97 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…ee0abacked Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 67c | 610.46$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 33c | 599.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 71c | 542.52$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.58 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 268$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 76c | 268$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 33c | 251.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 14c | 198$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 65c | 152.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 14c | 151.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…f75abacked No | 35c | 121.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked No | 34c | 75.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 116 | 60.3%70 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 68c | 58.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…722cbacked Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iceland win on 2025-09-05?this page
- Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-05?No won
- Will Iceland vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.