Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417c5e6c05cc71fe5a63a9fd57ea48bbb9ac23ca9481ff9fcdf91e406d8ae88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 15,976$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 58c | 607.38$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 3c | 416.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 62c | 173.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 43c | 89.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 43c | 80.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 37c | 49.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 60c | 39.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 75c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or higher on October 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on October 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on October 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.