Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417cb1cb83f5cc221717f6ac8827ba2a62956123666222303e51d6d560ed248e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 297.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 166.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 92.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 91.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 85.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 78.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 23c | 64.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 28c | 55.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 74c | 54.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 34c | 53.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 39c | 51.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 71c | 50.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 68c | 47.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 23c | 46.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…04b8backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 32c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 725 | 66.2%480 W · 245 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 78c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked No | 68c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 72c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.