UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41abce82d139e95b01703cfbbf6d05dc416db654680606b190029dc495f22213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf47…c0efbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc013…554bbacked Yes | 37c | 795$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…5695backed No | 63c | 755$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 40c | 490$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…a4d7backed No | 63c | 380$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 63c | 319.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b5…b082backed No | 63c | 315$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…5942backed No | 63c | 305$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 60c | 254.95$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb3…da37backed No | 63c | 245$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…41bfbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 36c | 97.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72af…d98bbacked Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 35c | 60.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…9aeabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092b…0ebfbacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…b98ebacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…35cdbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…6d9ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by submission?this page
- UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by decision?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Park win by submission?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.