NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Timberwolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4287938f15c0ce3569d76e43eb9f8b6a4bcb3ddb670005f4bfe271aa9c0c44cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Raptors, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 12c | 6,797$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.69 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Raptors | 6c | 2,768$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Raptors | 6c | 2,371$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked Raptors | 4c | 1,235$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Raptors | 3c | 1,034$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Raptors | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Raptors | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…0c3bbacked Raptors | 10c | 550$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Raptors | 10c | 444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…ec4dbacked Raptors | 10c | 439.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed Raptors | 6c | 372.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…4de3backed Raptors | 10c | 296.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…0b20backed Raptors | 12c | 248.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Raptors | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Raptors | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Raptors | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…9c06backed Raptors | 29c | 175.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…dc5abacked Raptors | 13c | 154.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…be81backed Raptors | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…a8d7backed Raptors | 14c | 146.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Raptors | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Raptors | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.