Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kansas State vs. UCF
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431b0776937602a98c1d5153bd538794305e0a22abce6087445a167b75d4b828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCFof Kansas State, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c9…9534backed UCF | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.3 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas State | 34c | 2,583$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.09 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Kansas State | 36c | 290$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…6c55backed Kansas State | 40c | 256$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…e857backed UCF | 60c | 213$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…3c79backed UCF | 60c | 197$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UCF | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dcfebacked UCF | 65c | 165$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…1638backed Kansas State | 40c | 158$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f0…c546backed UCF | 50c | 144$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…a5a4backed Kansas State | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d05…61b8backed Kansas State | 40c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…4039backed Kansas State | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb83…708ebacked UCF | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96af…2cecbacked UCF | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…b28cbacked Kansas State | 33c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…de96backed Kansas State | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…0fa4backed Kansas State | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…4262backed Kansas State | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…e7c8backed Kansas State | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…82d7backed Kansas State | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Kansas State | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8364…2e46backed Kansas State | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…99a1backed UCF | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…adedbacked Kansas State | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5d…3481backed Kansas State | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…50c5backed UCF | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…5d0dbacked UCF | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…87d3backed UCF | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…85b1backed UCF | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b552backed Kansas State | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…15c1backed UCF | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9543…b940backed UCF | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3411…8ca5backed UCF | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…d66abacked UCF | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…cd7abacked UCF | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…258bbacked UCF | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…191bbacked UCF | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…2c2abacked Kansas State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…48f5backed Kansas State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5435…fc73backed UCF | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…8823backed UCF | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed UCF | 66c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…ba22backed UCF | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.