Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona vs. Idaho State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4343ec2032f131d57f47b24a186a45513ff1f30b271d83ed33e1520a845d4327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Arizonaof Northern Arizona, Idaho State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Idaho State | 41c | 515$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Northern Arizona | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Idaho State | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…6a69backed Northern Arizona | 28c | 163$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…f9a3backed Idaho State | 46c | 151$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedd3…1f26backed Northern Arizona | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…9a55backed Northern Arizona | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…fc04backed Idaho State | 72c | 101$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…80c5backed Northern Arizona | 30c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…c33ebacked Northern Arizona | 63c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Northern Arizona | 29c | 86.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…8924backed Northern Arizona | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Idaho State | 71c | 76.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0349…9b43backed Northern Arizona | 28c | 76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…7e40backed Northern Arizona | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…e3b3backed Northern Arizona | 28c | 74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…6e3bbacked Northern Arizona | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…121cbacked Idaho State | 72c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…2ababacked Northern Arizona | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…bc17backed Northern Arizona | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…7009backed Idaho State | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…8b82backed Northern Arizona | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9d…1e55backed Idaho State | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…45cbbacked Idaho State | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…f33cbacked Idaho State | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…9f5cbacked Idaho State | 72c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…c054backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…78bfbacked Idaho State | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…6540backed Idaho State | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…0290backed Idaho State | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…f847backed Northern Arizona | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…492dbacked Idaho State | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8eadbacked Idaho State | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…07a7backed Idaho State | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…e450backed Northern Arizona | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eeabbacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…63debacked Idaho State | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…352abacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff59…247ebacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…a73fbacked Idaho State | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…0b91backed Northern Arizona | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…0ddcbacked Northern Arizona | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…7af1backed Idaho State | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…8bcfbacked Idaho State | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2536…8fe6backed Idaho State | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…69cdbacked Northern Arizona | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…3edfbacked Idaho State | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…72bdbacked Idaho State | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…60a4backed Idaho State | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…9703backed Idaho State | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…154cbacked Idaho State | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…b26abacked Northern Arizona | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…ed47backed Idaho State | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…3113backed Idaho State | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…0b73backed Northern Arizona | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…f2d0backed Idaho State | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…ffb2backed Idaho State | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x459b…dfe3backed Northern Arizona | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…09f7backed Idaho State | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…99d1backed Idaho State | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…a452backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…932fbacked Idaho State | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…c3f9backed Idaho State | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…839abacked Idaho State | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…d84ebacked Idaho State | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…ebedbacked Idaho State | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…47a3backed Idaho State | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.