Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will Charlotte FC vs. D.C. United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437ba746d86ddc327ccb92e10be864c2908dc2700f8622d449401fa433889b5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…3e0ebacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…3c65backed Yes | 22c | 995$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…10b7backed Yes | 22c | 990$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 74c | 549.62$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…cc58backed No | 78c | 445$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a9…8a10backed No | 78c | 245$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 22c | 177.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…d9aebacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…9c4abacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 82.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a098backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will Charlotte FC vs. D.C. United end in a draw?this page
- MLS: Will Charlotte FC beat D.C. United?Yes won
- MLS: Will D.C. United beat Charlotte FC?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.